In April 2025, the Catholic Church reached a critical turning point. Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, the day after Easter, at the age of 88, a historic moment arrived to elect a new spiritual leader for the world's 1.4 billion Catholics. Unlike his predecessor Benedict XVI, Pope Francis did not resign during his lifetime but died while in office, resulting in the declaration of a sede vacante (vacant seat). The Vatican is now preparing a secret meeting called the Conclave to elect a new pope. This article explores in depth the Conclave procedures, key candidates, and the various dynamics surrounding the election of the next pope.
The Conclave Schedule and Procedures: An 800-Year-Old Secret Election Tradition
After the pope's funeral and the official nine-day mourning period (novemdiales) concluding on May 5, the Conclave is expected to begin in early May according to Vatican regulations. The papal election procedure follows strict traditions dating back to the 13th century, where the College of Cardinals with voting rights elects a new pope in complete isolation from the outside world.
The voting participants in the Conclave are limited to cardinals under 80 years of age, with 135 of the total 252 cardinals currently holding voting rights. They will enter the Sistine Chapel for the papal election and, following the declaration "Extra omnes" (everyone out), will be completely cut off from the outside world, dedicated solely to the sacred duty of electing a new pope.
Voting takes place up to four times daily (twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon) and continues until one candidate receives support from at least two-thirds of the attending cardinals. The ballot papers are burned after each vote; black smoke rises when no one reaches the quorum, while white smoke signals to the world that a new pope has been elected. The new pope changes into white vestments in the adjacent "Room of Tears" and makes his first appearance on the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica with the announcement "Habemus Papam!" (We have a pope!).
Modern conclaves typically reach a conclusion within 2-3 days, as demonstrated in the most recent 2013 Conclave, which elected Pope Francis in just two days.
Major Papal Candidates: The Papabili
This Conclave features a competitive field with more than 20 strong candidates being discussed. Experts unanimously agree that it is difficult to predict who will ultimately be elected from among cardinals with diverse backgrounds and inclinations. Here are the most prominent candidates.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)
Cardinal Parolin, who served as the Vatican Secretary of State (effectively the prime minister), is currently mentioned as the most likely first-choice candidate. A seasoned diplomat who has assisted Pope Francis since 2013, he is considered a moderate pragmatist who doesn't lean too far to either the left or right. As a high-ranking Vatican official who has maintained cordial relationships with cardinals worldwide, he is referred to as a "safe card." His strengths lie in diplomatic skill and administrative ability, making him suitable for healing internal divisions.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67)
Cardinal Tagle, a prominent Asian candidate, is the current prefect of the Pro-Dicastery for Evangelization. His compassionate pastoral style and open attitude have earned him the nickname "Francis II" for his similarity to the current pope. He has gained attention for his inclusive statements regarding marginalized people in the church and could represent the growing reality of Catholicism in non-European regions like Asia.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69)
Cardinal Zuppi, the Archbishop of Bologna, is a reform-minded figure favored by Pope Francis. He serves as the president of the Italian Bishops' Conference and has been active internationally, including being dispatched as a special envoy for peace mediation in Ukraine. Drawing from his experience in the Sant'Egidio Community lay movement during his youth, he has championed solidarity with the poor and advocacy for peace.
Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary, 72)
Cardinal Erdő, the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest in Hungary, is considered a leading representative of conservative cardinals. Appointed by Pope John Paul II in 2003, he has served as president of the Council of European Bishops' Conferences and has emphasized doctrinal strictness on issues such as communion for divorced and remarried Catholics. He is mentioned as a strong alternative candidate to Cardinal Parolin in the early voting.
Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76)
Cardinal Turkson from Africa represents a region experiencing rapid growth in the global Catholic population. He was also named as a candidate during the 2013 Conclave and is assessed to have increased support within the church this time. While taking progressive positions on social justice and poverty issues, he maintains very conservative doctrinal positions on homosexuality and contraception, making him a compromise candidate where left and right inclinations intersect.
Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea, 79)
A traditionalist cardinal from Guinea, Africa, he was close to the late Benedict XVI and was considered a representative of conservative views during Pope Francis's reign. He has maintained a critical stance toward innovations following the Second Vatican Council, opposing same-sex marriage blessings. Though his age makes him more of a dark horse, the possibility of his rise cannot be ruled out if conservative votes coalesce.
The Conservative vs. Progressive Showdown: A Decision Determining the Church's Direction
The core issue of this Conclave is summarized as whether to shift the church's future course toward conservatism or continue the reform agenda pushed by Pope Francis. During his 12-year reign, Pope Francis appointed around 110 new cardinals, filling about 80% of the electoral college with his appointees. However, not all of them share the same inclinations.
The pope focused on geographical diversification of the College of Cardinals, appointing many clergy from non-European regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America. As a result, the distribution of cardinal electors by origin is approximately 39-40% European, 17-18% Asian, 18% Latin American, and 12% African—a higher proportion of non-Europeans than ever before. This is significantly different from the 2013 Conclave, when Europeans constituted a majority (52%).
Within the church, conservatives hoping for a return to traditionalism and progressives wishing to maintain the reform path coexist. The conservative camp wants the new pope to follow a traditional line different from Pope Francis, with some figures warning that "if the next pope doesn't follow orthodox Catholic lines, the church could face division." Cardinals like Raymond Burke of the United States (77) and Gerhard Müller of Germany have appointed themselves as unofficial leaders of the conservative camp, demanding that the next pope restore doctrinal strictness.
In contrast, the reform and progressive forces believe the new pope should continue Pope Francis's legacy of compassion for the poor, inclusivity for marginalized people, and church institutional reform. Cardinals like Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg and Michael Czerny of Canada, who have led the church's modernization and renewal through initiatives like the Synod, are expected to represent the view that Pope Francis's legacy should be preserved during the papal election process.
Papal Election Outlook: Who Will Become Peter's Successor?
Experts describe this Conclave as "the most difficult to predict in modern papal election history." The situation is competitive, with no clear frontrunner due to the wide range of strong candidates and the diverse inclinations of the College of Cardinals.
Cardinals Parolin and Tagle are widely observed as leading candidates from the beginning. Italian-born Parolin offers strengths in management ability and diplomatic experience, while Asian-born Tagle brings youthful vigor and pastoral passion, each providing different appeals. However, the cardinals participating in the vote may make choices different from media or external evaluations, and it has been common in the past for unexpected figures to emerge as compromise candidates toward the end of the Conclave. When Cardinal Bergoglio (now Pope Francis) was elected pope in 2013, he was not considered a leading candidate in the early stages.
Although the official meeting has not yet begun, unofficial papal candidate campaigns and checks are already cautiously taking place below the surface in the Vatican. Upon arriving in Rome, cardinals naturally exchange views on the characteristics of the next leader through dinners and fellowship gatherings and begin efforts to gather votes for their preferred candidates.
Once the Conclave begins, voting is expected to proceed from the first evening or the next day, with the possibility of a new pope emerging within 2-3 days. Traditionally, delays in papal elections increase anxiety among the church and faithful, so cardinals feel pressure to quickly find and agree on a candidate with broad support.
Future Direction of the Church: What Is Being Decided?
The outcome of the next papal election depends on whether the College of Cardinals sees "continuing Pope Francis's reform path or considering it time for adjustment." As the Catholic Church has undergone many changes during Pope Francis's term while also facing internal opposition, the College of Cardinals will seek to choose the most suitable person considering church unity and future vision.
Summarizing the current atmosphere, many believe there is a high possibility of compromise between moderate reform continuation and moderate conservative return. That is, rather than extreme change or abrupt return, a pope with centrist tendencies who maintains Pope Francis's inclusive spirit to some extent while also being acceptable to the conservative camp may emerge.
In this context, some analyses favor Cardinal Parolin for his outstanding diplomatic and coordination abilities, while others expect Cardinal Tagle or African candidates to bring renewal and new vitality to the church through a non-European pope.
Conclusion: Waiting for the White Smoke
Regardless of who is elected, the extent to which Pope Francis's legacy and reform direction will be continued is the greatest concern for the world's 1.4 billion Catholics, and these discussions are expected to unfold intensely during the Conclave process. The new pope faces the heavy task of healing conservative-progressive conflicts internally while charting the church's course amid rapidly changing world circumstances externally.
As the whole world watches breathlessly until the results are announced, everyone awaits the moment when sacred white smoke rises above St. Peter's Square. "Habemus Papam!" – with this declaration soon to resound, the Catholic Church will enter a new era.
